Trends in the Risk for Cardiovascular Disease among Adults with Diabetes in Oman

Jawad Al-Lawati, Magdi Morsi, Asya Al-Riyami, Ruth Mabry, Medhat El-Sayed, Mahmoud Abd El-Aty, Hawra Al-Lawati


Objectives: This study aimed to investigate trends in the estimated 10-year risk for developing cardiovascular disease (CVD) among adults with diagnosed diabetes in Oman. In addition, the effect of hypothetical risk reductions in this population was examined. Methods: Data from 1,077 Omani adults aged ≥40 years with diagnosed diabetes were collected and analysed from three national surveys conducted in 1991, 2000 and 2008 across all regions of Oman. The estimated 10-year CVD risk and hypothetical risk reductions were calculated using risk prediction algorithms from the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), Diabetes Epidemiology Collaborative Analysis of Diagnostic Criteria in Europe (DECODE) and World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk tools. Results: Between 1991 and 2008, the estimated 10-year risk of CVD increased significantly in the total sample and among both genders, regardless of the risk prediction algorithm that was used. Hypothetical risk reduction models for three scenarios (eliminating smoking, controlling systolic blood pressure and reducing total cholesterol) identified that reducing systolic blood pressure to ≤130 mmHg would lead to the largest reduction in the 10-year risk of CVD in subjects with diabetes. Conclusion: The estimated 10-year risk for CVD among adults with diabetes increased significantly between 1991 and 2008 in Oman. Focused public health initiatives, involving recognised interventions to address behavioural and biological risks, should be a national priority. Improvements in the quality of care for diabetic patients, both at the individual and the healthcare system level, are required.


Risk Assessment; Risk Reduction Behavior; Trends; Diabetes Mellitus; Cardiovascular Disease; Oman.

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Sultan Qaboos University Medical Journal, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Sultan Qaboos University, PO Box 35, Postal Code 123, Al-Khod, Muscat, Oman

ISSN (Print edition): 2075-051X ISSN (Internet edition): 2075-0528

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