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Abstract
Many regions in the world have recently experienced more frequent and intensive disasters such as flash floods and persistent droughts. The Sultanate of Oman is no exception to this. We analyzed twodecade long daily precipitation records in three major cities, namely, Sohar, Muscat and Salalah, mainly focusing on extremes. A set of climate indices defined in the RClimDex software package was used. Moreover, annual maximum 1-day precipitations in three study areas were analyzed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution function. Results showed significant changes in the precipitation regime in recent years. The annual total precipitation in Sohar and Salalah decreased, while that in Muscat shows statistically week increasing trend. However, all indices analyzed indicate enhanced extreme precipitation toward 2010 in Muscat and Salalah. As a result, the contribution from extreme events to the annual total rainfall steadily increases in both study areas. A clear conclusion could not be made based on selected indices for Sohar due to consistent drier years occurred from 1999 to 2005. Frequency analysis indicates that the annual the maximum 1-day rainfall estimated in Sohar and Muscat for 5 and 10 year return periods are approximately same (70 mm/day and 108 mm/day, respectively) but about two-fold greater than that in Salalah (29 mm/day and 60 mm/day, respectively).
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References
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- Demaria EMC, Maurer EP, Thrasher B, Vicuna S, Meza FJ (2013), Climate change impacts on an alpine watershed in Chile: Do new model projections change the story? Journal of Hydrology 502: 128-138.
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- Gunasekara NK, Kazama S, Yamazaki D, Oki T (2013), The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17: 4429-4440.
- Haren RV, Oldenborgh GJV, Lenderink G, Collins M, Hazeleger W (2013), SST and circulation trend biases cause an underestimation of European precipitation trends. Climate Dynamics 40: 1-20.
- Jenkinson AF (1955), The frequency distribution of the annual maximum (or minimum) values of meteorological elements. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 81: 158-171.
- Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Hegerl GC (2007), Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. Journal of Climate 20: 1419-1444.
- Liu B, Chen C, Lian Y, Chen J, Chen X (2015), Long-term change of wet and dry climatic conditions in the southwest karst area of China. Global and Planetary Change 127: 1-11.
- Stahli M, Badoux A, Ludwig A, Steiner K, Zappa M, Hegg C (2011), One century of hydrological monitoring in two small catchments with different forest coverage. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 174: 91-106.
- Tank AMGK, Zwiers FW, Zhang X (2009), Guidelines on analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation (WCDMP-72, WMOTD/ No.1500), 1-55.
- Tezuka S, Takiguchi H, Kazama S, Sato A, Kawagoe S, Sarukkalige R (2014), Estimation of the effects of climate change on floodtriggered economic losses in Japan. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 9: 58-67.
References
Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Tank AMGK, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Kumar KR, Ravadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson DB, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Aguirre JLV (2006), Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research D05109, doi:10.1029/2005JD006290.
AlSarmi SH, Washington R (2013), Changes in climate extremes in the Arabian Peninsula: analysis of daily data. International Journal of Climatology 34: 1329-1345.
Beniston M, Stephenson DB, Christensen OB, Ferro CAT, Frei C, Goyette S, Halsnaes K, Holt T, Jylha K, Koffi B, Palutikof J, Scholl R, Semmler T, Woth K (2007), Future extreme events in European climate: an exploration of regional climate model projections. Climatic Change 81: 71-95.
Coopersmith EJ, Minsker BS, Sivapalan M (2014), Patterns of regional hydroclimatic shifts: An analysis of changing hydrologic regimes. Water Resources Research 50: 1960- 1983.
Demaria EMC, Maurer EP, Thrasher B, Vicuna S, Meza FJ (2013), Climate change impacts on an alpine watershed in Chile: Do new model projections change the story? Journal of Hydrology 502: 128-138.
Fowler HJ, Ekstrom M, Kilsby CG, Jones PD (2005), New estimates of future changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integrations, 1. Assessment of control climate. Journal of Hydrology 300: 212- 233.
Groisman PY, Knight RW, Easterling DR, Karl TR, Hegerl TC, Razuvaev VN (2005), Trends in intense precipitation in the climate record. Journal of Climate 18: 1326-1350.
Gunasekara NK, Kazama S, Yamazaki D, Oki T (2013), The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17: 4429-4440.
Haren RV, Oldenborgh GJV, Lenderink G, Collins M, Hazeleger W (2013), SST and circulation trend biases cause an underestimation of European precipitation trends. Climate Dynamics 40: 1-20.
Jenkinson AF (1955), The frequency distribution of the annual maximum (or minimum) values of meteorological elements. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 81: 158-171.
Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Hegerl GC (2007), Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations. Journal of Climate 20: 1419-1444.
Liu B, Chen C, Lian Y, Chen J, Chen X (2015), Long-term change of wet and dry climatic conditions in the southwest karst area of China. Global and Planetary Change 127: 1-11.
Stahli M, Badoux A, Ludwig A, Steiner K, Zappa M, Hegg C (2011), One century of hydrological monitoring in two small catchments with different forest coverage. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 174: 91-106.
Tank AMGK, Zwiers FW, Zhang X (2009), Guidelines on analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation (WCDMP-72, WMOTD/ No.1500), 1-55.
Tezuka S, Takiguchi H, Kazama S, Sato A, Kawagoe S, Sarukkalige R (2014), Estimation of the effects of climate change on floodtriggered economic losses in Japan. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 9: 58-67.